Of course, this is a one-size-fits all calculation, which doesn’t consider anything about Mr. Ryan specifically. The fact that he is quite young, that the Republican Party lacks an obvious successor other than him, and that he commands the respect of both the party base and the party establishment, all work in his favor in terms of running for and winning future nominations. Whatever happens this year, he is likely to be a major part of the American political landscape for a long time to come.
Via New York Times.